We have officially reached the point in the year where premature speculation heats up and college football experts start to make their picks for the upcoming football season. We are going to take a look at Bill Connelly’s famous SP+ Rankings whose metrics rank all 138 FBS schools. This week, we will focus on the ten football playing programs of next year’s Mountain West. See last week’s edition for the PAC 12. We will also take a look at how the two conferences stack up.
The Good
UNLV (59)
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Not much of a surprise here, but the Rebels take the top spot in the Mountain West and the number two spot in the Group of Six (20 spots behind Boise State). The Rebels should be improved on the defensive side of the ball, and with Dan Mullen returning as head coach, this team has a solid shot at securing a playoff spot. Despite losing Mountain West Player of the Year, Anthony Colandrea, the Rebels are expected to have one of the best offenses in the Group of Six coming in at number 33. The defense is still a major question mark coming in at number 89; improvement on that side of that ball will likely determine how this team does this fall.
New Mexico (68)
The Lobos have an insane amount of returning talent and, in my mind, the best coach in the Mountain West. Those two factors alone make them dangerous. Consistency is key in college football and Connelly’s projections see the offense (68) and defense (73) as balanced. The Lobos definitely have some areas of play they will need to clean up if they want to contend for a playoff spot, specifically consistent quarterback play and improved production in the secondary. I’m not sure I’m ready to say the Lobos are the favorite to win the Mountain West, but it wouldn’t shock me if they are pushing the PAC 12 and American champions for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
North Dakota State (72)
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The Mountain West’s newest addition is expected to step in and be an immediate contender. Unfortunately for the Bison, they cannot qualify for a spot in the CFP or even a bowl game. But this is an opportunity for the best FCS program to prove they can compete at the FBS level on a regular basis. This team will be good, but I’m not sure they will be ready to play at this level on a week-to-week basis. While the Bison won’t be playing for a conference championship this fall, don’t be surprised if they destroy the hopes of other teams in the league.
The Bad
Air Force (79)
I’m not going to lie, I was a little surprised to see the Falcons this high, specifically ahead of Hawaii. Air Force’s defense wasn’t just bad last season it was awful. While they will probably be a bowl team in the new-look Mountain West, it is hard to see them being a contender. Connelly’s projections see the Falcons being better on the defensive side of the ball (83). That is likely because they were young on defense, especially in the secondary this past fall. Hopefully, that experience last season will help them take the next step this upcoming season.
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Hawaii (84)
Hawaii is another surprise. The return of Micah Alejado was one of the bigger surprises of the offseason, and he will likely be the preseason Player of the Year. The loss of Jackson Harris at wide receiver is huge, but the return of Pofele Ashlock and some additions from the portal should solidify this group. Connelly’s projections are low on the defense (93), but I expect the Rainbow Warriors to outperform that number. This team is dangerous; the outcome of their season will likely come down to their ability to perform on the road, something this team has struggled with for quite some time.
The Ugly
Wyoming (106)
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The Cowboys are coming off of a second consecutive losing season and according to Connelly’s rankings, things aren’t looking much brighter this season. The success of this team will come down to its ability to show growth on the offensive side of the ball. It is really hard to win games when you can’t score points. These metrics have the Cowboys’ offense as one of the worst in the nation (124th). For the last decade, this team has relied on a top ranked defense to propel them to solid seasons. Jay Sawvel’s seat is hot; if this team doesn’t show progress, I expect a new head coach in Laramie by the time 2027 rolls around.
Nevada (112)
The Wolf Pack have spent the last few seasons as the Mountain West’s punching bag. We started to see progress at the end of last season. Like Sawvel in Laramie, this is a prove it year for Jeff Choate and his staff. If they don’t show significant growth, they will likely be looking for a new head coach in Reno. Connelly’s metrics see the Wolf Pack being really bad on both sides of the ball, specifically on offense (117th). The Wolf Pack did a better job of retaining some key players this off-season, but they have a lot of holes on both sides of the ball and need a star to emerge at quarterback or running back if they want to go bowling this fall.
San Jose State (122)
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The Spartans had a massively disappointing season in 2025 where they were expected to contend for a conference championship and ended up near the bottom of the standings instead. This season, they will be breaking in a new quarterback and are depending heavily on the transfer portal to fill holes on the defensive side of the ball. The SP+ metrics have the Spartans struggling on both offense (114th) and defense (also 114th). The Spartans will likely outperform these projections on at least one side of the ball, but Ken Niumatalolo and his staff have a lot to prove this fall.
NIU (125)
The Huskies enter their first season in the Mountain West with a lot to prove. They are near the bottom of the FBS in offense and defense. They will be breaking in a new coach and are looking like a potential punching bag for the rest of the conference. Will the conference regret adding a member that resides on the other end of the country? The current outlook is not good.
UTEP (129)
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The Miners are entering the Mountain West in a tough spot. This program has been in a rut for the better part of this century despite being in a football hotbed. Maybe the resources and increased exposure of a new conference will help them, or maybe they will just be the new bottom-feeder of the Mountain West.
Mountain West Average Ranking: 95.6
How do you feel about the Mountain West SP+ Rankings? How do they compare to the PAC 12? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
