UFC Vegas 120 best betting props, parlays and picks | Gamrot vs. Salkilld

UFC Vegas 120 happens this weekend (Sat., Aug. 8, 2026) at the META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is our first trip to the warehouse since June 20! This card is certainly fit for the surroundings, with mostly Contender Series graduates and two-fight UFC veterans.

The main event is Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quilan Salkilld, with Salkilld looking to crash into the Top 10 at Lightweight and Gamrot looking to keep his spot. Salkilld has had a very impressive run to date, but Gamrot represents the biggest challenge of his career.

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The co-main is Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo (combined age of 79, there). Rounding out the main card are Ty Miller vs. Billy Ray Goff, Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle and Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Bruno Lopes.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vegas 120 Main Card Money Line Odds

Mateusz Gamrot (+110) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-130)

Things have been up and down for Gamrot over the past few years. In early 2024, he overwhelmed a fading Rafael dos Anjos for a unanimous decision. He was then upset by Dan Hooker, getting touched up en route to a split decision loss. In 2025, he scored a dominating decision over the much smaller Ludovit Klein. And then he followed that up with a submission loss to Charles Oliveira (see it here). He looked a class below “Do Bronx” in that fight. This April he got a submission win over Esteban Ribovics (see it here). That took his UFC record to 9-4.

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Things have been going up-and-up for Salkilld. He burst onto the scene in early 2023 with a 19-second knockout over Anshul Jubli (see it here). After that, he used his wrestling to beat Yanal Ashmouz and then a head kick from hell to beat Nasrat Haqparast (see it here). In January, he sliced through Jamie Mullarkey (a short-notice replacement opponent). In May, he was given his biggest name opponent to date, in the form of Beneil Dariush. He beat the perennial Top 10 Lightweight with a first round technical knockout (see it here).

I’m not quite a believer in Salkilld as a title contender. But, I do think he’s got a great chance of beating Gamrot and getting to that next step up the ladder. Salkilld’s skills have looked flawless against the chaff of the division, including Dariush, who after this latest run, can be viewed as “just a guy” and not an elite Lightweight. So, we have all that in Salkilld’s favor. When you add his size to the equation, I think this is a very tough fight for Gamrot.

Salkilld is a very big Lightweight. He’s 6′ and has a 75-inch reach. That reach is longer than Ian Machado–Garry‘s. Gamrot’s two recent losses were to guys bigger and/or longer than him (Hooker and Oliveira) and his best performances have come against fighters he has a lot of size over (Klein and dos Anjos).

Gamrot’s pressure wrestling game falls apart when someone can hurt him as he comes in (like Hooker did) or if someone is too big and strong for him to take down. Salkilld has both those things working in his favor. He’s also shown some great wrestling, like with his dominant performance over Ashmouz.

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I’m just struggling to see Gamrot’s path to victory on this one. He’ll hope that he can chip away at the feet and spend lots of time with Salkilld folded up against the fence or flat on his back. Even if Gamrot has the talent to do that, I don’t think he’s strong enough to do that to someone who is so big.

There’s also the age factor with Salkilld being nine years younger than Gamrot.

All of this piled together makes me surprised to not see Salkilld as a very big favorite in this bout. As it stands, my best bet is taking the Aussie on the moneyline.

Best bet: Quillan Salkilld moneyline (-130)

Diego Ferreira (-162) vs. Billy Quarantillo (+136)

Ferreira was well beaten by Alexander Hernandez in his last fight, all the way back in September. That ended in a second round technical knockout (see it here). Before that he was totally dominated by Grant Dawson. His last win was his come from behind technical knockout over Mateusz Rebecki in 2024 (see it here). He turned 41 in January.

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Quarantillo turns 38 in December. He hasn’t competed since Dec. 2024. That’s when Cub Swanson went beast mode on him and took him out in the third round (see it here). Before that, Quarantillo was submitted by Youssef Zalal (see it here).

I can’t believe this is serving as a co-main event in 2026. These two have had some exciting fights, but both have way more of their career behind them than in front of them at this point.

These are two pretty similar fighters. They both want to stand and bang, but have a lot of wrestling and/or grappling to help them out if the fight goes there. At this point, though, they’ve both slowed down to the point where it would be irresponsible to match them with young up-and-comers (like what has happened to poor Darren Elkins further down the card). I suppose it’s good that we are seeing them fight each other, then.

The last time Quarantillo fought a fighter of advanced years he got knocked out cold. The last time Ferreira fought someone similarly long-in-the-tooth, he got a big knockout (that was against Michael Johnson).

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I like Ferreira in this fight and it’s mostly because of Quarantillo’s extended time on the sidelines. Ferreira has been out almost a year himself, but Quarantillo’s extra-long period of inactivity paired with Ferreira’s four-inch reach advantage has me somewhat confident in the Brazilian.

Best bet: Diego Ferreira moneyline (-162)

Darren Elkins (+500) vs. Yadier del Valle (-700)

Elkins is set to make his 30th walk to the Octagon on Saturday. It’s been more than one year since we last saw him, when he was short-circuited by Julian Erosa (see it here). Before that, he got typically gutsy wins over Daniel Pineda and TJ Brown. He turned 42 in May.

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Del Valle was upset by Jordan Leavitt in his last fight, losing a decision as a -420 favorite. That was Leavitt’s Featherweight debut and he looked massive opposite Del Valle. Del Valle was 10-0 up to that point with two submission wins in UFC. One of those was the controversial victory over Isaac Dulgarian, though (not that any of the controversy had anything to do with Del Valle).

Poor Elkins, UFC really is showing its hand here when it comes to what they think of him. Elkins is the kind of guy who probably gets motivated when he’s set up against a young gun who is a big favorite.

Even so, there’s only so much a 42-year-old can do out there in the cage. I think Del Valle, who is 12 years younger than Elkins, is going to be too strong for him. Elkins doesn’t have the power left in his hands to break guys down with his pressure. I think he’ll do his best, but Del Valle will be able to pick him apart and probably take him for a ride with his wrestling.

I think Del Valle probably gets the finish here and it probably happens in less than 2.5 rounds.

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Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-260)

Amanda Lemos (+200) vs. Alexia Thainara (-245)

Lemos‘ last fight was a decision loss to next week’s title challenger, Gillian Robertson. Before that, she lost to recent title challenger, Tatiana Suarez. Her last win was over Iasmin Lucindo in March 2025. She’s 15-6-1, but — other than Leslie Smith — every woman who has beaten her has either been a champion or a title challenger. That includes her own title loss to Zhang Weili in 2023, where she handled herself quite well. Lemos holds a win over Mackenzie Dern.

Thainara is 14-1 after she dominated Bruna Brasil in March. She’s now 3-0 in UFC with wins over Loma Lookboonmee and Molly McCann — by submission (see it here).

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I really like Thainara, but I worry that this match-up might be coming too soon for her. Lemos is as tough a vet as they have in the division. And she just did the whole “shutting down the up-and-comer” act when she totally schooled Lucindo.

Thainara has Lemos beat on paper, when you look at the stats, but we really need to throw that out the window. The difference between these ladies schedules is night and day. Two of Thainara’s three opponents aren’t even in the promotion anymore.

Despite Thainara being so green, I wouldn’t be too surprised if she managed to get past Lemos. She does have a lot of size, youth and athleticism on her side. Lemos’ experience and technical skill are unlike anything Thainara has seen before, though.

I don’t have a point spread for this one, yet. But, Lemos plus the points would be a great bet to make, in my opinion — since I don’t think Thainara finishes her and Lemos knows how to win rounds.

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As it is, though, I’ll take the underdog hoping she can end this hype train (for a fighter I do actually really like!).

Best bet: Amanda Lemos +3.5 (-135)

Ty Miller (-285) vs. Billy Ray Goff (+230)

Miller got a standing technical knockout over Adam Fugitt in January (see it here). That improved his record to 7-0 (1 NC). That Fugitt fight was his first after graduating from Contender Series.

Goff won his Contender Series fight and his follow-up fight, but has lost two since then. In May he was slept by Ramiz Brahimaj in the first round (see it here). He was the -400 favorite in that fight.

This is an interesting match-up since it was once Goff getting the kind of hype that Miller is getting now. There’s a lot to motivate him in this bout; like wanting to prove he deserves some attention and also wanting to snap his two-fight losing streak.

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Is Goff’s desire enough, though?

He’s got a really uphill battle in this fight. And that’s because of how small he is compared to Miller. Miller is four inches taller and has five inches of reach on him. That’s going to make everything harder for Goff, in both striking and grappling. I’ve not seen much to show that Goff is special enough to conquer those disadvantages (especially against someone who looks pretty good at this point).

Best bet: Ty Miller moneyline (-285)

UFC Vegas 120 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Diyar Nurgozhay (-162) vs. Bruno Lopes (+136)

Nurgozhay won a terrible fight over Rafael Tobias in March. That was his first win in UFC (outside of Contender Series). Before that, he lost to Uran Satybaldiev via Ezekiel choke (see it here), and Brendson Ribeiro by kimura (see it here). He missed weight for the Ribeiro fight.

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Lopes was finished by Navajo Stirling in March (see it here). Before that, he was KO’d by Dustin Jacoby in just under two minutes. His last UFC win was a decision over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov.

I don’t know why they keep making Nurgozhay the favorite in these fights. Yeah, he beat Tobias in his last bout, but he landed a big groin shot and grabbed the fence twice. He almost got finished with a Suloev stretch, too.

Lopes has been very suspect in a lot of his fights, but he’s better than the scrubs Nurgozhay has fought (most of whom have beaten him).

Best bet: Bruno Lopes moneyline (+136)

Louie Sutherland (-192) vs. Jose Montanha (+160)

Sutherland got his first UFC win in May after out-wrestling a forlorn Tai Tuivasa. Before that, he was TKO’d by Brando Pericic (see it here) and heel-hooked by Valter Walker (see it here).

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Montanha is a total UFC newcomer. The 29-year-old is 6-1 with a career fought entirely in Brazil. He was booked to debut in Nov. 2025, but that fight fell through. He was also booked against Jhonata Diniz in June, but Diniz had to pull out.

There’s very little information out there on Montanha. I watched the following video:

The awful AI narration makes this really hard to get through and I think the prompt this “creator” put in made the narration really hype up Montanha. In the video itself he looks terrible.

You can win at Heavyweight in UFC despite being terrible, though. Sutherland has done that himself.

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I’m looking at the over in this fight, given what Sutherland chose to do against Tuivasa (lay and pray).

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-135)

Responsible Betting

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Steven Asplund (-230) vs. Guilherme Pat (+190)

Asplund dropped a decision to Vitor Petrino in March, where he showed an incredible chin. He’s now 1-1 in UFC after scoring a technical knockout on Sean Sharaf in his debut (see it here).

Pat lost a majority decision to Thomas Petersen in April. That was the first loss of his professional career. Before that, he won a very forgettable fight over Allen Frye Jr.

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Pat’s biggest attribute is his size at 6’6.” However, against Petersen all that size didn’t count for much. He landed some good kicks early, but then seemed too afraid to engage. Petersen took advantage of that, hurting him in the third and earning a 10-8.

If Pat’s passivity was because of Octagon jitters (in his second professional fight … in the APEX) or some kind of injury he was masking, then there could be hope for him. If he’s just a massive guy who is too anxious to fight with aggression and assertiveness, though, then he won’t last long here.

Asplund is also massive. And he’s not afraid to attack (and get hit). He’s going to push the pace in this fight and be in Pat’s face. That could overwhelm Pat or it could leave Asplund open for counters (if Pat’s willing to throw them).

I’m with the bookies in thinking Pat might shrink away from contact in this one and that Asplund will chase him down and put a hurting on him.

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Best bet: Steven Asplund moneyline (-230)

Juliana Miller (-238) vs. Ravena Oliveira (+195)

Miller lost to Carli Judice in February to drop her professional record to 4-4. Her UFC record is now 2-3 (not including her The Ultimate Fighter appearances).

Oliveira is 7-4-1 overall and 0-3 in UFC. She missed weight for her last fight, a technical knockout loss to Shanelle Dyer (see it here).

This might be one of the lowest level fights ever put on by UFC, featuring two women who really needed a lot more seasoning before getting put in the Octagon. Miller is the big favorite for her wrestling capability and that’s probably all she needs in this fight. Oliveira sits at 46 percent when it comes to defending takedowns, so I expect her to spend a lot of time on her back.

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I’ll take the under here, thinking Miller can get a submission during her time in top control.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-166)

Miles Johns (-155) vs. Jessie Rosas (+130)

Johns hasn’t competed since Nov. 2026. He’s on a three-fight losing streak, which included a submission loss to Daniel Marcos in his last outing. The other losses were to Jean Matsumoto and Felipe Lima. Those three fighters had a combined record of 44-3 when he met them, though. His last win was a decision over Douglas Silva de Andrade in 2024.

Rosas is making his UFC debut here. He’s the younger brother of Raul Rosas Jr.. He’s 8-1 on his career so far, with most his fights happening in the Ultimate Warrior Challenge Mexico promotion.

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Rosas’ record isn’t much to write home about. He’s only 23 and he’s been thrown into the deep end for his UFC debut. Johns may have lost his last three, but he’s a 32-year-old man who knows how to win in the Octagon. His last three losses were to great opponents. Marcos and Lima are both UFC quality, despite being released from the promotion. Those releases were two of the biggest head scratching roster moves UFC has done lately. Marcos, Lima and Matsumoto would all be favorites against Rosas if they fought him today.

I’ll side with the veteran here. I hate that he’s been out more than one year, but I trust him more with my money than a newbie who hasn’t had a full camp.

Best bet: Miles Johns moneyline (-155)

Manoel Sousa (-265) vs. Richie Miranda (+215)

Sousa announced himself on the UFC stage with a third-round stoppage of Bolaji Oki in his proper debut (see it here). He’s now 14-1 with his only loss being to Archie Colgan during his stint in Bellator/PFL.

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Miranda finally gets a call-up after a long career with LFA. The 31-year-old vacates the LFA Lightweight title to book his Octagon debut at the APEX. He’s 13-1 as a pro with his only loss being a split decision to Kegan Gennrich.

Sousa has made a decent splash here in UFC, but I don’t think he’s one of these recent Brazilian super prospects we’ve seen come in lately (Michael Oliveira, Lerryan Douglas, Marcio Barbosa, etc.). And I’ve really enjoyed watching Miranda on LFA. He’s a very experienced fighter and the names on his record aren’t that much different from what passes for an APEX undercard fighter these days. He’ll have some decent reach on Sousa, as well as a grappling advantage.

I don’t have odds for these yet, but I’m picking Miranda (who I suspect might be a slight underdog).

Best bet: Richie Miranda moneyline (+215)

GiGi Canuto vs. Carol Faro

This was thrown together yesterday (seriously). So, I have no odds for it and they probably won’t be released until fight day.

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Canuto had impressed on the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter. Outside of that show she has a 7-1 pro record with fights all in LFA, mostly by stoppage.

Faro beat Shanelle Dyer, by decision, on Contender Series back in 2025 and has struggled to get booked since. She’s had fights with Nicolle Caliari and Stephanie Luciano fall through.

Both these women have a lot of upside, but I think Canuto’s grappling and athleticism get her the W on Saturday.

Best bet: GiGi Canuto moneyline (?)

UFC Vegas 120 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Quillan Salkilld to win by submission (+450)

I’m really mindful of Salkilld’s size in this match-up. That alone won’t beat Gamrot on the ground, but that plus all Salkilld’s talents might. I think there’s a chance he’s able to stuff a takedown, smother Gamrot and then get a submission.

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Two-bet parlay: Richie Miranda and Carlos Ferreira money lines (+395)

I’ve watched a lot of Miranda in LFA and I think he’s cut out for this level. He’s also hella tough and just can gut out wins. He’s my favorite underdog here so I’m pairing him with a moderate favorite. Ferreira is over the hill, but so is Quarantillo (who has a shorter reach and has been out since 2024).

Yadier Del Valle to by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+500)

I don’t like what I saw from Elkins in his last fight and I think his people need to have some frank conversations with him.

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