Popular predictive model has Spartans missing bowl game again in 2026

A popular college football predictive algorithm has Michigan State struggling again this season.

ESPN’s SP+ predictions have been released for the upcoming season, and to little surprise, Michigan State is not projected to experience much success. The algorithm has the Spartans averaging 4.4 wins, which if you’re rounding to the clearest non-decimal number, you get only four wins in 2026. That would be an identical record to what Michigan State put up last year as well.

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SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency and a predictive mathematical model. The model was created by Bill Connelly and is widely considered one of the top predictive tools out there for college football.

The Spartans have a low projected record does not come as a surprise given the recent lack of success and also the number of key contributors that left via the transfer portal this offseason. But the predictive algorithm could also be slightly behind on the Spartans should someone like starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic outperforms his mathematical projection. Or if there is a notable coaching upgrade from last year’s staff to this year’s led by new head coach Pat Fitzgerald. Those are the kind of things that would need to occur for Michigan State to get closer to reaching bowl eligibility — something they haven’t done since 2021.